So you have won a bunch of auctions, all the small items you were hoping for. I did this for nearly a year. Now you want to go for the big one! Here are a few examples of my big ticket items and the strategy that went with the win.
One of my first big ticket items was a Viper Tool Box valued at $461, it closed at $30.26 and was during a “Free Sale”, so I only paid one cent transaction fee. Let’s look into the stats of this auction. Ok, big ticket item, we’ve established that. Now, how popular an item is it? Have you watched this item a few times? You should have, now this particular item, the Viper Tool Box, is very popular, so I knew there was going to be a lot of people trying to win it. It was also a new item at the time, and the excitement around the item is high….I still wanted it, so I was going for it!
First, go to the logged off version of the item. If you log out of Deal Dash, what the non-members see is the average selling price of the item. This number is very important, but is not the golden rule, it should be used to estimate the number of bids you will need to win this item. Let’s say the average selling price was $34.00 you can assume that the auction will eventually boil down to 4 players, divide the average number of bids placed by the average number of players, this will be the minimum number of bids you will need to win the item. 3400/4 = 850. So you will need to have 850 bids as a general rule to win this. That is $128 for bids plus the selling price.
Once the item reaches $5.00 you have now the “set pool of players” no one can join the auction after $5.00, therefore “No Jumpers”. You will now count the number of players . This Viper Tool Box had 60 players, and average selling price is $34.00. Take the price and remove the decimal point 3400 potential bids so at any given time there could be 7-10 people divide the number of bids by the average number of people, for this example, I will use 8, the average number of players at any given time after $5.00. So, 3400/8= 425 this is the least amount of bids you will need to win this auction, on average.
Now, let’s use my numbers of the actual auction to see how this compares to the average tool box auction. My Tool Box closed at $30.26 and I used 431 bids. This was a Free Auction Sale, so although the auction ended at $30.26, I only paid a one penny transaction fee. Add that to the cost of bids I used which was 431 x .15 (avg. cost of a bid) = $64.65 + $.01 = $64.66 which was my final cost of the tool box. This $461 item cost me $64.66 and I saved $396.34 that is 85% off! The tool box weighed 85 pounds and Deal Dash shipped it free.
Compared to the statistics
average selling price = $34.00
my selling price = $30.26
bids need as per calculations = 425-850
bids I used = 431
my cost including bids = $64.66
my savings = 85%
Like all statistics, there is a standard deviation, or as some might say “plus or minus”, or “give or take”, but what ever term you use, statistics is all about averages and anything can factor in and skew the results. But, as a general rule you can figure where your budget should be for a big ticket item. As always, you should be prepared to purchase the item if you don’t win it. If you were just trying to win it for a few cents and you did! Congratulations!